Libya can save U.S. in Mideast

Rather than compounding the military campaigns to which President Bush originally committed us a decade ago, the intervention in Libya can become part of a broader transformation that ultimately stabilizes the region, restoring and even breaking new ground in the credibility and legitimacy of U.S. influence and power in the Middle East.

Libya seems to be a perfect fit for U.S. intervention. Despite the Bush administration's rapprochement with Libya, unlike Mubarak in Egypt, Muammar Qaddafi is hardly seen as Washington's ally, so there's little of that imperialist baggage or angst. The United States is acting under a genuine coalition, including participation of Arab forces. The Arab League, and China and Russia, have stepped back from their original assent to the Libya intervention, but they were fully aware that the UN Security Council resolution was authorizing more than a simple "no fly zone".

The United States was too involved in Mubarak's fortunes to intervene in Egypt, and Bahrain is home to our Fifth Fleet and it's Arabia's new Achilles' Heel. Qaddafi has established himself as the quintessential isolated fanatic dictator, and not without merit. Also, enabling the rebel tribes to remove him may open opportunities for further mayhem, but in reality Al Qaeda has failed to manifest itself in any of the Mideast turmoil, including in Libya where Qaddafi and other critics of international intervention have revived Osam bin Laden as the poster child for status quo tyranny.

This week it's Tunisia, but remember Zimbabwe?

Tunisia is in the middle of a stunning, popular revolution, and democracy advocates are pushing for Egypt to be next. The leader of Cote d'Ivoire refuses to cede power following his electoral defeat. South Sudan is on the verge of independence and possibly further violence.

One man has special reason to be pleased with this turn of events: Robert Mugabe, the onetime revolutionary turned corrupt despot, who has overstayed his tenure as President of Zimbabwe. Remember him? I had almost forgotten about him. Last autumn, all eyes were on Zimbabwe, where Mugabe was violating the terms of his power-sharing arrangement with the winners of the last election. He is no longer the Most Despised African Leader, and Zimbabwe is not even in the news.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy admitted this week that he was caught off guard by the democratic fervor in Tunisia, a former French colony. So were we all. Every now and then, there are mass demonstrations throughout Africa and the Middle East, and Western leaders cannot afford to risk security and economic stability on the chance that one freedom movement might succeed. But we do love to celebrate their success, after the fact.

Will nations commit more funds to developing civil society internationally, as a result of Tunisia's early success, the challenges of Cote d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe, or the near-totalitarian stasis in Egypt? Will they make democracy and human freedom true priorities of their foreign policy? What put Tunisia over the top was its own population and its own civil society, not some organized strategy of the international community.

Tunisia and democracy - stay tuned...

Events in Tunisia are unfolding by the minute. From President Ben Ali's pledge to retire in a few years, to the army's reported demand that he step down now, and all the demonstrations and violence in between, Tunisia still has an opportunity to move forward.

Twenty years ago, Tunisia seemed like the next best hope for Arab democracy. Morocco has produced slow progress without sacrificing stability, while Algeria has failed. Tunisia was still moving in the right direction, opening up slowly enough to develop strong institutions of civil society without leaving a vacuum to be filled by religious or ideological extremists. Unlike Algeria, it was spared the worst traumas of decolonization and retains a sophisticated global outlook.

Tunisian society and culture are predisposed to the continuation of civilian rule, and to an upgrading of inclusive, participatory government. Tunisia is not a failed state, and it need not become one. Its fate has not yet been sealed. The next several hours and few days will largely determine its future: Will the President either regain control of the situation or leave office? Will the military commit itself to safeguarding a democratic outcome? Will the Arab, Islamic, African and European powers act responsibly and in coordination?

The results in Tunisia will have ramifications for the Maghreb, as well as the rest of the Arab world. In the long run, a more vibrant Tunisia can be a major player in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, fighting terrorism and extremism, and transforming the Middle East into a democratic region. The stakes are high, because the possibilities are so great.